Feds Say Just One Car Out of one hundred Will Be Electrified in 2040
Feds Say Just One Car Out of one hundred Will Be Electrical in 2040
Electrical vehicles are gaining a petite foothold in the U.S., but according to the feds, it will remain just that – puny. Fossil fuels will power the vast majority of vehicles for the next two and a half decades, with electrified cars accounting for a scant one percent of vehicles sold in the United States in 2040, according to Uncle Sam.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook report for two thousand fourteen predicts that by 2040, almost eight in ten cars sold will run on gasoline, down marginally the number sold last year. The number of diesels rolling out of showrooms will dual to four percent of all vehicles sold, while hybrids will comprise five percent of cars. That's up from three percent last year.
But the headline figure is this: The EIA predicts that only one percent of total vehicle sales in the U.S. will be plug-in hybrids, with another one percent being fully electrical in 2040.
“The numbers of LDVs [light duty vehicles] powered by fuels other than gasoline, such as diesel, electric current, or E85, or tooled with hybrid drive trains, such as plug-in hybrid or gasoline hybrid electrical, increase modestly from eighteen percent of fresh sales in two thousand twelve to twenty two percent in 2040,” the report states.
Last year, around 14.Five million vehicles were sold nationwide. If the EIA's numbers pan out (and overall vehicle sales stay about the same), fewer than 300,000 EVs and plug-in hybrids will be sold in 2040. That's bad news for the Obama administration, which has long hoped to see one million EVs and plug-in hybrids on the road by two thousand fifteen .
While these estimates are a buzzkill for EV proponents, taking the longview puts things into perspective. The internal combustion engine has been around for over a century, it's filth cheap and technological advances like direct injection and old tricks like turbocharging keep enhancing efficiency. And as much as we like cars with ropes, the technology is hampered – at least in the eyes of many consumers – by range and cost concerns. It's difficult to predict the future, of course, but the odds of a major battery tech breakthrough in the next decade remain slender.
The numbers laid out by the EIA jibe with those in last year's report, suggesting the long-term adoption of electrical vehicles in all their guises – battery electrical and hydrogen fuel cell – will be far slower than advocates would have you believe. The good news is that albeit we'll still be using lots of gasoline, the average fuel economy of all vehicles sold in the United States will rise from 21.Five mpg last year to 37.Two mpg by two thousand forty as gas prices will only rise to $Three.90 a gallon (adjusted for inflation), compared to the previous forecast of $Four.40.